US: more biofuel production in 2016
On November 30, the US environmental protection agency (EPA) finalized a rule setting Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2014 through 2016. The US energy information administration (EIA) used these finalized volumes to develop the current STEO (short term energy outlook) forecast and assumes the 2016 targets for 2017, except the biomass-based diesel 2017 target of 2.0 billion gallons, which was included in the November 30 rule. Ethanol production, which averaged an estimated 964,000 b/d in 2015, is forecast to average about 970,000 b/d in both 2016 and 2017. Ethanol consumption, which averaged 910,000 b/d in 2015, is forecast to average 930,000 b/d in both 2016 and 2017. This level of consumption results in the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool averaging 10.0% in both 2016 and 2017. EIA does not expect significant increases in E15 or E85 consumption over the forecast period.
EIA expects that the largest effect of the proposed RFS targets will be on biodiesel consumption, which helps to meet the RFS targets for use of biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel. Biodiesel production averaged an estimated 85,000 b/d in 2015 and is forecast to average 107,000 b/d in 2016 and 112,000 b/d in 2017. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are also expected to increase from 28,000 b/d in 2015 to 47,000 b/d in both 2016 and 2017.
